[Telepath article]
Mike --
I commented when the article first came out:
exchange2000.com
I haven't had my coffee yet, but will add just a few comments and then run.
For a start, consider the bias of some of the persons interviewed. Helfrich, for example, is from CopperMountain:
coppermountain.com
It's a start-up. They have two products, both SDSL. Their web site is half under construction. Their white paper is a hyperlink to TeleChoice's ADSL paper. And the author is basing a sizeable portion of the article on this guy's comments. He's the advertising director, for Pete's sake.
The author also quotes AMD. I checked out their web site, as well.
amd.com
It's a chip fab and their products include ICs for LAN (ethernet to the PC), flash memory and imbedded processors. They've had experience in ISDN, but not DSL. Read this segment again:
<<<"You have to realize the craftspeople talk about weeks to analyze one line for ISDN," said Mike Wodopian, vice president of communication markets at Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (Austin, Texas), "and they say it will be tougher for the DSLs-particularly asymmetric DSL. We've stayed active in subscriber-line circuits because the uptake is predictable. But having been through the ISDN wringer on technology push vs. applications pull, we remain very skeptical of the time frames talked about for DSL service deployment.">>>
He's basically saying they haven't installed ADSL yet but "they say it will be tougher for the DSLs - particularly asymmetric DSL. . ." When anyone quotes the etherial "they," be cautious. He then admits he's basing his experience on ISDN and is therefore skeptical. And, frankly, based on ISDN he has every right to be.
As for Bobbi Murphy, senior broadband analyst at Dataquest and
Niel Ransom, vice president and general manager of access and network management at Alcatel, when they speak about the challenges ISPs have in getting access to the local loops they're both correct. There are many hurdles to cross to get there. PacBell is using the services of ISPs, in other words working cooperatively with them, where GTE is positioning itself to serve as a CLEC in order to circumvent some of the hurdles. This is a big issue and not one to sweep under the carpet in the least. However, I'd like to have some coffee before lunch. :))
<<Analysts at TeleChoice, Dataquest and other market-research firms
who were once gung-ho on DSL warn hardware suppliers to pay attention to factors that could cool carrier interest.>>>
I have no argument with that statement, however, I could use the same information --- that hardware suppliers need to pay attention to factors that could cool carrier interest --- by phrasing it differently. "Moving from the euphoria of seeing a world wired for speed, Dataquest and other market-research firms are now looking at the realities and cautioning hardware suppliers to . . ." You see what I mean? Same information is given but with a slightly different slant. That's the journalists' perogative. Where the article says, "Dataquest's Murphy went so far as to suggest, in a Supercomm speech, that "the bridge to the 21st century will be an analog one," I would have to know the contest of that statement. If she were placating the analog end of the industry, she might have been indicating, "Don't despair yet, while ADSL is in the process of being deployed, remember, "the bridge to the 21st century will be an analog one." And this is true. Analog modems will be sold to those who've never even owned a computer before and by sheer numbers, analog sales will be higher for the next year or two. A better indication of where the market is going would be the growth figures.
And finally, about Tac Berry's comment, "ADSL rollouts clearly will be coming next year at the earliest. . . . We've learned a lot in trials, but the problems of copper plant are real ones." I would question his use of "at the earliest." I suspect he meant "the earliest we'll see rollouts is next year." I'll try to get an explanation later today. They have learned a lot about the copper loop in trials and there are real problems. Not insurmountable problems. Real ones.
Believe me, I'm not saying rollout is easy or that it'll happen over night. I'm only trying to point out that any article can paint just about any story the author wants. Don't just question what's being quoted but question who said it. That Helfrich guy, heck, he's got every reason in the world to want ADSL deployment to lag.
Okay, I'm outta here.
Cheers!
Pat |
