Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: isopatch who wrote (4287)	11/22/2001 9:52:44 AM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (3) of 36161

NOTE WEATHER UPDATE: My prediction of a colder than normal winter, with the emphasis on JAN FEB being the coldest relative to normal, remains unchanged. I believe the winter will be significantly colder than normal. Recent ENSO and buoy data have indicated a important change to my forecast. I no longer believe a significant winter storm (possible supercell) will cause a pivot change to warmer weather during the Jan-Feb period. There is a slightly better than even chance there will be a warming spell after, but it will not move the cold trend off the map. Instead there may be an abrupt change late in March. While I believe it will be a long winter, that is as close as I can get to "spring break". With current drought conditions and a prolonged winter freeze possible, heavy precipitation associated with any spring thaw would raise the danger of significant spring flooding in my area. The winter I think this years winter will most closely resemble is 1978. The other change in the winter forecast is I expect the cold weather is likely to dominate the entire eastern US (possible exception southeast) and the northern plains area of US. West coast may have slighlty warmer than normal winter weather, though that is way out of my forecast area, that pattern is suggested. I cannot get a firm reading of the onset of colder than normal weather temperatures, which I expect sometime in December. Best guess is near the winter holidays and if pressed I would say Dec 19. This year has remained very close to last years temperatures in my area so far. I will continue to monitor the NAO which should give some advance notice of the onset of colder than normal temps. But not today, time to get ready for family get together. A Happy Thanksgiving to All, Roebear

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