Rich, when looking at things, you have to respect recent history.
-To kill a bear, you have to re-test the lows. We haven't done that
-The peaks in January and May broke through the falling resistance line for between 75-150 points and fell back below. We broke through a bit better than that.
-Historically, large drops happen when the RSI is as high as it has been this week.
-We have rallied nearly as far as we did in the Spring, and that turned back after the peak.
-Rising wedges have formed on most indices, and those normally break to the norm (down) to the point at which they started. They are quite bearish formations that need to be respected.
-MM's are criminal
There are many other reasons, but we've been over them here many times.
-E-wavers look at waves, not history. If we don't learn from recent history (May, June, August as well as summer 2000) we are doomed to repeat it. Double tops, re-tests, falling resistance lines, support/resistance lines, wedges, and necessary pullbacks don't really seem to matter to many e-wavers from what I can see. The main focus tends to be Fib re-traces and waves, which is a bit too simplistic for me.
They may be right, Rich, but I just see way too much stacked against their case. |
