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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 36.97+3.2%2:22 PM EST
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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (149177)11/22/2001 10:38:03 PM
From: Dan3  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
Re: Isn't Dresden supposed to be at full capacity now?

Dresden is supposed to be built out at the end of this year. The first quarter of full production starts would be in Q1 of next year, and the first quarter of full production output would be Q2 of next year.

So Dresden volume will actually never max out at .18, since by the time they are shipping full production in Q2 of next year, a significant portion of that production will be .13 production - but the capacity at .18 would be 7 to 8 million parts.

AMD expects to be shipping at a quarterly rate of 12.5 million parts from Dresden this time next year. Add in 6 or 8 million chips from VIA, keep in mind that Apple/Motorola is very much back in the game since Motorola switched to SOI, and it looks likely that pricing pressure on Intel will continue to increase.

It doesn't appear likely that the market for the last two quarters of next year will reach 100 million units. AMD, VIA, and Motorola between them will be shipping around 50 million units. Intel will either have to settle for 25 million or so units per quarter, or slash ASPs to become quite a bit lower than at present.

Intel is looking more and more like GM in the 70's: thinking it could ignore the Japanese automakers because it held nearly 70% of the market and "could crush its competiton at any time."

One day they woke up to find they had less than 40% of the market and were losing money hand over fist.
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