AA, I very much appreciate your efforts as well as the other e-wave contributors to this thread.
I am not even qualified as a newbie in the e-wave area, but I do watch, observe and learn.
From a trend line perspective, the weekly OEX key for this week is ~581. This is the upper tine of a fork that has been in play since the spring of '00. It is a down sloping line at 4-5 points per week. It is interesting that the high of 595 hit a parallel down sloping line from the May high, which was the last failed breakout. Therefore, IMHO ~595 holds the near term key. I am not confident with all the horizontal resistance from ~600 and above.
The positive is the Fed's liquidity pump. One only need to look at a fourth quarter of '99 to determine the implications the last time the Fed had the pump wide open. Three of the negatives are frequently mentioned oil, valuations, and the recent bond market changes.
There is a fourth. It is the federal stimulus bill sitting in Congress with $80-$100B that I'm sure some folks are looking forward to getting a piece of. A major reason that I've heard for it being "held up" is the recovery in the equity markets. I'm sure that some Big money realizes that this can be fixed. I vividly remember Billie Boy, Rubin, and Greenie, running around in September, '98 yelling that the sky was falling and absolutely trashing the equity market until they got their desired bailout of the Big Bank. I think we need to be on guard for this possibility happening again.
Just a View from the Swamp
Berney |
