Yes, Mao, I agree it seems difficult to tell if TOY will have a run (up) from here. Looks like MAT and HAS have already had a nice run. But MAT has has a hot product apparently, Jimmy Neutron, so the run-ups might continue.
I'm a long term holder of TOY. You are correct in saying (and doubting) the conventional wisdom: "The stock begins to stir in August and September as investors look optimistically toward the upcoming Christmas season. Then it rises through the fall on the wings of analysts' forecasts for strong sales and earnings. But come December, as reality sets in and the Street's enthusiasm starts to cool, Toys stock begins to sputter." (WSJ, Aug. 12, '98, "Buy on the Lightning, Sell on the Thunder", interview with W.E.Thomason of Parnassus Investments"). Except that it seems to me, in looking at the chart that that has not happened in the recent past.
My bet is on associated games for the Xbox, others. I have here RADA and IFGM. Also MWY, primarily because of Sumner Redstone's on-going insider buying.
Still sorry I missed BBY and CC mentioned by Jimbo and you (? - I've forgotten) last year. I still have a little TWTR in that sector. I've been buying SHRP.
Regarding PSUN and ANF, I passed on those and bought ZQT (Go Roxy!). I also have several not-so-cool clothing retailers. PERY and SCNYB (a Ben Graham net-net play) and BL for example -- I'll guess these stocks haven't enough pizzazz for people in the Bunker though.
I sold my losing bet on ENE. ouch!
Paul S.
who has been wrong many, many times
finance.yahoo.com |
