I think that the AD line is a very slow indicator, it has been going up while we were making new lows here just two months ago. Sure right now it points to a longer term (3 to 6 quarters) period of advancing prices, on this thread, they ask you what will the market be at at 2:00 PM on Monday, not in 9 months (g). As for th expanding triangle, these have very long time horizons, look at the expanding triangle from about 1965, to 1985, and you will see that we got to the top there only once in that whole period, in 1966, if you relied on that triangle to reach 3000 on the Dow by 1970, or even 1975, you had to wait more than 10 years... I for one, do not have more than 13,500 as the top on the DOW for the next two years and 4300 on the Naz for the next three. For me "To da moon", means just around 3000 on the Naz within a year, and that is more than 50% from here, and close to 100% from where think we will bottom in late December.
Zeev
PS, if you indeed recommended VLNC and MVIS some two years ago, did you you suggest bailing out in the interim or did you maintain your fundamental point of view that these companies each have some intrinsic positions in the market place that will make them long term winners, thus justifying staying with them whatever comes? |
