Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (11240)	11/23/2001 8:30:39 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) of 74559

<I think for the past couple of years we have been teetering on the edge of deflationary precipice and Uncle Al is well aware of that. He would prefer a nice stable earnings rate and none of this mayhem, but he has to deal with what's real. > What's real is the second law of thermodynamics.... the longer a system is altered {yellowstone's natural fires being 'managed'} the bigger the adjustment later as things return to their normal state {ie. a bigass wild fire later on}... the same things applies to all imaginable systems including the economy. I'd add anecdotally that it sure looks to me right now as if there's a lot of "dead wood" out there! <If the world's economy goes beyond a deflationary event horizon, the consequences of a deflationary implosion could be unimaginably bad.> Someone said deflation changes the party in power... inflation topples the system of government. <The world is a huge realtime experiment and we are now in a situation unparalleled in biological history.> Don't let this get out... there are tens of millions who think we're living under a bell curve and stocks are like flipping coins... I agree, they're in for a surprise. <6 billion people [many times more than were alive in 1929], living in huge cities, dependent on technological marvels which didn't exist supported by dodgy financial systems. > Yep, lots more dead wood and much bigger surprises are now possible. DAK

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