I think it's finally time for you to get your revenge on MTP by buying the common stock. Basically if they were to get away $150M worth of debt at 7.3%, that implies the bond market must think that their prospects are still not a considerable risk above the 'usual suspects'. A "bad" deal would be if they were forced to do a toxic convertible, or a 10%+ yield, etc..
I'd rate the 50% gain potential to be pretty good at this point in time. Not only that, but I pretty much think that right now, things couldn't possibly be worse for the company. Their fibre network is real, right? :)
I'll put a disclaimer and say that I'll most likely be taking some of my own advice... after I read their last 8-K and 10-Q filings. If I don't find anything that the world doesn't know already (QWest lawsuit, buerocratic delays with the Montana energy commission, ummmmm, gross mis-management in terms of market timing, etc), then I'll be picking up stock. Most likely for $4.50 a pop.
Worst case scenario (assuming no AREM-type grand larceny) is that they get bought out for $5/share+debt for their telecom assets.
Speaking of which.. am I nuts to think that it's time to start getting SLIGHTLY bullish on it?
My corresponding trade on the MDY thread will be this:
Message 16697647
Note that for my personal portfolio, the numbers (shares purchased and price) will be different, for 'scale' reasons. But I always announce trades in advance on the MDY thread, just to make things a little challenging. :) |
