The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread Message Board

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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread

VTI 334.44

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Nov 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: marc ultra who wrote (1590)	11/25/2001 10:33:58 AM
From: Boca_PETE	Read Replies (2) of 10065

marc u: Amazing how fast investment advisor bullish sentiment has risen since Sept 29. Then it was 44.5% Bullish (33.7% Bulls and 42.1% Bears). During the last 8 weeks, it has steadily risen to 62.1% Bullish (46.9% Bulls and 28.6% Bears). And the VIX has dropped during the same period from the mid 30's down to 24.8 (I believe the 52 week low is 20.29). And then there's all that CNBC Happy Days are Here Again Talk on TV - time lag for FED stimulus to work has passed, lower oil prices will stimulate the economy, tax cuts will stimulate the economy, sharp recovery early next year is at hand so don't miss the train. I thought the actual layoffs were just revving up, 2001Q4 corporate earnings will be terrible and estimates of 2002Q1 earnings were dubious, industrial capacity is now at less than 75% making it unlikely companies will expand plants for some time to come, companies servicing the fledging auto industry are forcing their workers to take 7% pay cuts, rising interest rates are reducing valuations of future estimated earnings, the new (presumed) bull market has climbed that wall of worry, no signs new air security measures will get the public flying again in significant numbers any time soon, the terror cloud from secret cells in the USA is still above in our skies despite successes in Afghanistan .... Sure am getting the feeling Bulls are setting themselves up for disappointment by sipping their hope cocktail in anticipation of big improvements in 2002 earnings to support significantly higher equity prices when valuations in the current environment are still very high. Could we be setting up for the final wash out cycle in this bear market? P

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