This is what i'm talkin about. VRTX qualifies as a gorilla candidate because they could have knocked out this drug candidate in phase one or even earlier in the design stage.
Phase three means CHIR has already spent about two $billion on Tifacogin. VRTX can do two years of wet lab research in 24 hours insilico.
Phase one is the place to knock out drug candidates before billions have been spent.
It is interesting to hear your opinions on these matters related to immunomodulation of the host inflammatory response in patients with overwhelming sepsis.
As one of the more prominent sepsis investigators in North America the past decade, and having published editorials, original studies, and book chapters on such matters, and teaching on this topic around the country, I would have to say your view as an investor and my view as a sepsis researcher are widely disparate.
A Phase III trial such as what Chiron (and supported by Pharmacia) completed for tissue factor pathway inhibitor runs about $50-100 million. $2 billion sounds a little high. The most expensive part of the research is typically the phases related to human investigation, the largest of which is the Phase III trial. At this point, there is no known or approved substitution for animal and human research. I think in vitro efforts, as you and many others trumpet, are vital and can accelerate the research process, but will never be a substitute for human investigation, in our lifetimes.
JMHO, as a medical scientist and clinician.
Which is why investing in Biotech is so hazardous. The animal data supporting investigation with tissue factor pathway inhibitor were compelling. But it is becoming increasingly clear that, unlike in other diseases, the usual animal models of sepsis do not parallel human sepsis closely enough.
Last Wednesday, Eli LIlly had a similar product, activated protein C, achieve FDA approval. Lilly was good, and lucky. Activated Protein C remains the only FDA approved product for sepsis, outside of conventional antibiotics, after some 15 years of research.
Sepsis is a tough nut to crack. Back to the drawing board.
Good luck with your Biotech investments. The Closest that I am compelled to get to Biotech, at present, is my Vanguard Health Fund, for my Sep-IRA.
Apollo |
