Fun with EMC figures and projections
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Euro-centric, GSM-centric EMC recently released 2 articles that everyone should read:
* "Comparative history shows GPRS/W-CDMA delays are absolutely predictable"
Message 16691367
* US operator Cingular confirms the 'clues'
Message 16691378
Usually Nokia DUCKS post EMC reports with near-breathless enthusiasm. These 2 reports are not to be found on Nokia boards. They've not been posted or in any way noted. They've been quickly swept under the DUCK rug. After reading them, its easy to see why. I wonder if EMC will lose its $$$ consulting contract with Nokia as a result of its conclusions... <g>
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Now... a little fun with numbers.
I believe that there are in the ballpark of 4-5 million GPRS handsets in circulation globally (or at least in carriers' inventories).
This would presently provide GPRS handsets a 1% global network penetration rate (4-500M GSM users). I'll assume that they all love the service and use it on a regular basis.
I've grown to understand that capacity - including GSM/GPRS capacity - is a zero sum game. There are a finite number of timeslots to provide existing voice services, with "unused" cells and perhaps a dedicated cell servicing data needs. Although voice services may not appreciably grow, neither will requirements diminish. We also know that capacity is a finite resource, with European GSM networks being somewhat constrained - and growing more so.
Regarding present GPRS network speeds, EMC states while discussing EDGE, "The whole role and performance of EDGE has been heavily debated within the industry. Nokia has made claims that it has seen data rates as high as 473Kbps, but more realistic average throughput rates could range from 60-160Kbps. At Cingular's press conference Ericsson showed EDGE running at 160Kbps. In theory EDGE will run at three times the rate of GPRS, so with some networks only showing data rates of 15-20Kbps, the lower end of the quoted range maybe more applicable."
So, while adding that, "With EDGE still only really in the lab testing stage, it is an unknown element. There is scepticism about whether it can perform in a live network situation, with performance at the cell perimeter a possible hindrance", EMC sees EDGE rates near 60kbs "more applicable", due to GPRS speeds of 15-20kbs being not uncommon.
Here is where I think it gets interesting...
It appears that we can logically conclude that networks with perhaps 1% GPRS penetration can only spare the capacity for data speeds of 15-20kbs.
What happens if GPRS penetration increases 10 times to 10%? If 15-20kbs is the best some networks can do with 1% penetration, how will networks handle 10%? Will maxim rates diminish to 1.5-2kbs?
There is no free lunch.
What about 50% GPRS handset penetration? Will maxim rates diminish to .3-.4kbs? What about GPRS networks presently powering out 40kbs. Will their maxim rates diminish to .8kbs under a 50% penetration load?
Although EMC expresses skepticism, EDGE in theory can triple GPRS speeds. Triple .8kbs is 2.4kbs... hardly impressive...
Is it possible that while vendors will - must - push for GPRS handset sales, carriers will have little choice but dissuade subscribers from using GPRS services in order to protect their core voice services?
Will GPRSEDGE be proven, perhaps over the next year, incapable of serving as a bridge to 3G? |
