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Pastimes : QQQ & DIA - chat & chart
QQQ 608.86+0.1%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST
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To: Jon Khymn who wrote (191)11/25/2001 6:02:53 PM
From: Jon Khymn  Read Replies (1) of 795
 
Reviewed long term chart again.

According to the chart, Nas should be in 1700s by now.
My theory is that due to 9/11, the market over reacted and went down too much (down to 1400).
And now the market has bounced back too much to the other side.

I like to think of the market as a ball attached to a rubber line that is tied at 1700.
The line was stretched down to 1400 and it bounced back to 2000. Eventually, expect the ball to revolve around 1700.
Next few month 1700 to be the axiom and then the axiom to move down to 1500 by April and 1200 by next fall.

Of course these are just a guesses.
I've followed gurus, fundies and t/a wizards past few years but their guesses weren't any better than mine. And most of their predictions were very vague, "it could go up but then it could go down, bla bla"...

I think it is best to stick with YOUR method and your conviction.
If haven't developed a method yet, shouldn't trade.
Most likely will lose in trading stocks if it is based on other people's method or idea.

1. Go with the trend especially mid term and long term.

2. Make big money by betting big at the market turn.
I usually plan ahead of time to pick a reversal point then try to stick with the plan.
(it worked 3 out 4 so far, the last one, didn't make any but didn't lose any either.)

3. Short term traders: Learn to recognize the PATTERN especially with short term chart (5 to 10 days). If you master your OWN method you can even make money shorting stock in a bull market; for no stock or market go up or down straight.

In conclusion: Study until you find your OWN method AND convince your self it works.
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