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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Moominoid who wrote (11317)11/25/2001 7:42:34 PM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
< I read on places like SI that takes an overly historic accounting type read of the situation without asking "what has changed?" Some of the crazier projections for stock prices example, don't think about what has happened to population and inflation alone let alone the real growth over the last 70 years, as well as the evolution of the financial system and capital deepening etc. >

Agreed somewhat, but population, inflation, and real growth [that has already happened] are all taken into current earnings numbers and hence what really matters is FUTURE growth vs multiple. Interestingly saying that growth has been accelerating and is there for bound to at even greater rates is also a form of "historical accounting". My whole premise in looking for a very deep recession is that, if anything, a new paradigm like Maurice's [it seems to me] could easily cause EVEN GREATER downturns.

Comments anyone?

DAK
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