Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (11347)	11/25/2001 11:20:05 PM
From: petekoby	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Hi Raymond about GX. You are correct with describing fundamental picture in business, but we are apparently disagree in value evaluation. Is 10b investment worth 10b or 5 or 3 or.... My bet is even if GX file ch. 11 it will be still worth 50c or so. With the sale of two businesses and reduction in cax you can make a case that they have money for next 1.5y. by mid 2003 if it does not turn say it files. Today seniors are around 20c. I have 9 5/8 2009. If we get 3 coupons investment is down to 6c. If it works payoff is huge, if it doesnt downside is very small . I wound not be surprized if in month they will be 25-30c. Now I understand Jay well since 6m ago GX looked like the best gamble of TC. Today it is still probably the best risk /reward game. But it is very speculative. Anyone buying bonds with discount should realize bigger discount higher the risk. It is up to gambler to determine risk reward ratio. Your point of recovering in to 2005 also in line with my thinking. But by that time you may have to pay over 100c for the winners

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