Steve, what do you think of this intelligence assessment from today's Haaretz?
Intelligence sources: Arafat era nearing end
By Aluf Benn
Intelligence analyses presented recently to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon claim that Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat does not appear to be part of the solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and that the Palestinian political system is now talking about the post-Arafat era.
Senior intelligence sources have recommended to the political level that they devote their efforts to creating connections with the "next generation" of the Palestinian leadership. The sources said that Arafat is currently subject to heavy pressure from several directions:
*Internal pressure from the Palestinian street as a result of increased support for the Islamic organizations Hamas and Islamic Jihad. This is seen as the most serious threat to Arafat's rule.
* Pressure from the senior Palestinian leadership, which believes that Arafat is leading the Palestinians to a dead end. They say so quite openly both to Arafat himself and to foreign diplomats and statesmen. However, these leaders still depend on Arafat and are not trying to replace him.
*Military pressure by Israel, which is carrying out damaging operations in Palestinian-controlled areas and enjoys the relatively broad diplomatic and military maneuvering room allowed it by the U.S.
*Insufficient international pressure. The Europeans believe Arafat is irreplacable and this makes him even more stubborn. However, recently the Europeans have balanced their field reports, which for a long time reflected the Palestinian position. Israeli sources say that the European position changed after it became clear that Arafat had lied to them when he claimed that Tanzim militiaman Atef Abayat was in prison. Abayat was killed by IDF fire while traveling in his car.
According to intelligence analyses, the Palestinian intifada reached a dead end even before the September 11 attacks on the United States. The international community grants basic legitimacy to the Palestinian position through United Nations resolutions, but it is not prepared to back acts of violence and terrorism and has sent the Palestinian leadership a clear message that terrorism and diplomacy do not go together.
The Arab states, headed by Egypt, have given the Palestinians rhetorical - but not practical - support, and Arafat has not managed to enlist significant Arab pressure on the United States on his behalf.
A senior security source said yesterday that the U.S. now clearly sees Arafat's role in terrorism and know that he is not doing a thing to fight it. The downturn in the number of terrorist events in recent weeks is the result of Israeli preventative actions and not of any effort by Arafat.
The source said that Palestinian "fatigue" from the intifada has not brought about a concrete decision to stop terrorism and commence preventive measures, such as arrests, investigations and intelligence connections with Israel. "The Palestinians have no such intention," the source added.
The source believes that the aim of the new American emissary to the region, retired general Anthony Zinni, will be to "reduce the level of violence in order to afford the U.S. freedom of action in its operations against terrorism."
"Arafat has not changed his strategic goals, such as the right of return. He will not give up [on these goals] and therefore the chances of reaching an agreement with him are very low," the source said |
