M A R K E T .. S N A P S H O T -- Shares look to plow ahead
By Julie Rannazzisi, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 8:46 AM ET Nov 26, 2001
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Stocks are looking to forge ahead on Monday after a stellar, albeit light-volume, rally on Friday.
The futures markets suggest that buyers aren't about to give up: the December S&P 500 contract gained 0.70 point, or 0.1 percent, and was trading about 2.70 points above fair value while Nasdaq futures added 10.50 points, or 0.7 percent.
European stocks were also giddy, following Japan's market higher and providing the U.S. with a positive backdrop. The Nikkei 225 Index finished above the 11,000 mark for the first time since late August.
Chip stocks fared well in pre-open action as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) raised its 2001 sales and profit expectations for 2001 thanks to a "substantial increase" in customer orders.
Among stocks trading, Intel (INTC) gained 19 cents from its Friday close to $31.25 in European trading.
But Lucent Technologies (LU) slumped 14 cents to $8.25 in Instinet after downgrades from both Morgan Stanley and ABN Amro.
Morgan Stanley cut its rating on Lucent to a "neutral" from an "outperform," citing belief that the company's recent stock price appreciation is ahead of any improvement in industry fundamentals. And ABN Amro lowered its view of Lucent to a "hold" from an "add," citing lack of confidence that the company can achieve sequential revenue growth in the second quarter of 2002 as well as non-compelling valuation.
Lehman Brothers' Joseph Rooney said he was paring back exposure to technology stocks and moving funds into traditional cyclicals, adding to an already overweight position in the group.
"We remain enthusiastic about cyclical stocks, but would differentiate between tech cyclicals and traditional cyclicals. The recent rally has pushed technology valuations into the top half of their trading range [while] traditional cyclicals remain towards the bottom end of their relative valuation range," Rooney said in a research note, adding that a revival in growth expectations will be the catalyst to prompt another leg of outperformance in the cyclical group.
CS First Boston said a hardware-led recovery looks "more possible" in 2002. "A more positive outlook from the Ciscos, Dells and Brocades of the world is reflected in firming projections for a 2002 hardware recovery," the firm said in a research note. CSFB said it maintains its year-end target of 1,900 to 2,000 for the Nasdaq, indicating that sentiment is taking another leap forward while fundamentals are inching their way along, setting up an overbought situation in the market.
Separately, the Index of Investor Optimism declined modestly in November, falling to 117 from the previous month's 130 reading. Optimism fell as investors struggled with the effects of a weakening economy, according to UBS PaineWebber and the Gallup organization.
On the fund flow front, Trim Tabs reported that all equity funds had outflows of $1.3 billion in the four trading days ending Nov. 21 compared with inflows of $100 million in the prior week. And equity funds that invest primarily in U.S. stocks had inflows of $600 million compared with inflows of $2.1 billion during the prior week. Finally, bond funds had outflows of $500 million vs. inflows of $1.0 billion the prior week.
On the war front, several hundred U.S. Marines landed near the Taliban stronghold of Kandahar, with additional Marines expected to arrive. Afghan factions are scheduled to meet in Germany on Tuesday to set up a new interim government.
Treasury focus
Government bonds were a touch higher out of the chute after finishing with more bruising losses on Friday.
The 10-year Treasury note was up 5/32 to yield ($TNX) 4.98 percent and the 30-year government bond edged up 1/8 to yield ($TYX) 5.35 percent.
No economic data is set for release Monday. This week's lineup includes November consumer confidence, October existing home sales, the Fed's Beige Book report on economic conditions, October new home sales and the Chicago Purchasing Mangers Index for November. Check economic calendar and forecasts.
The revision to third-quarter gross domestic product will also be out later in the week. Bruce Steinberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch, said third-quarter GDP probably shrank at a 1.5 percent rate vs. the 0.4 percent originally reported.
Steinberg said fourth quarter GDP is probably shrinking at about the same pace and that recovery could begin in the first quarter of next year.
"But we continue to believe a second quarter recovery is more likely. That's because record lows on corporate profit margins point to large-scale job reductions through the winter," he said in a research note. Steinberg expects the Fed to ease again on Dec. 11 and cut the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent.
In the currency arena, the dollar shaved 0.4 percent to 123.92 yen while the euro climbed 0.4 percent to 88.13 cents. |
