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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Softechie who wrote (8256)11/27/2001 5:26:57 AM
From: Psycho-Social   of 99280
 
Afghanistan: A more difficult phase ahead?
In the not-too-distant future, things could begin to get more difficult. To the extent that consumer confidence has been bolstered by military successes, there could be a bit of let-down, although I don't think more domestic attacks are likely.

The U.S. and the Northern Alliance were successful in large part because a technologically backward and politically unpopular regime tried to stand its ground against the world's greatest military power, and its allies. Two difficulties could soon arise, however: The taking of Kandahar could require - a) The Northern Alliance Tajiks and Uzbecks leaving their traditional homelands to enter Pashtun lands. b) The militarily inept anti-Taliban Pashtuns to defeat the core Taliban force, assisted by U.S. bombing. c) U.S. ground forces to attack Kandahar. Any of these options carries serious risks.
Additionally, if the Taliban retreat to the long strip of borderland from Jalalabad in the north to the SW Afghan border w Iran, we could be put in a position where we need to patrol a long border zone, with all the military difficulties and political difficulties that entails. Who knows how Pakistan and Iran would react if we start bombing near their borders and mounting military sorties to prevent Taliban guerillas from sneaking back and forth across their borders.
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