re: Nokia 2002 Outlook
From "Nokia Capital Market Days", now in its second day ....
>> Nokia Expects Solid Revenue Growth Next Year As Industry Enters New Phase
November 27, 2001
Nokia PR
Company announces annual sales growth target of about 15% with continuing good profitability for 2002.
At the company's annual global analyst meeting, Nokia saw conditions set to improve markedly next year, expecting annual sales growth of about 15% for 2002 with continuing good profitability. Nokia also expects to achieve sales growth of 25-35% during the fourth quarter, 2002 at the latest.
Nokia estimates 420-440 million mobile handsets would be sold globally in 2002, representing annual market volume growth in the area of 10-15%. Annual double-digit market volume growth is expected to continue from 2002 onwards. The company also revisited its full-year estimate for total market volume for 2001, which Nokia now sees reaching about 380 million phones, with expectations for about 105-110 million in the fourth quarter 2001.
In terms of global subscriber growth, the company continues to expect 1 billion mobile phone subscribers during the first half of next year and is forecasting a total 1.5 billion subscribers by 2005.
With a stream of new product and category launches in the pipeline for next year, Nokia remains committed to extending its mobile phone market leadership, and reiterated its long-term target of achieving a 40% share. Management confirmed its commitment to start shipments of dual mode GSM/WCDMA 3G phones during the second half of 2002. The company believes that 3G phones should account for roughly 10% of all mobile phones unit sales in 2003.
During November, Nokia launched a total of nine new products; six mobile phones, including Nokia's first imaging phone, and three models targeted specifically for Asia Pacific, the fastest growing market, and three Bluetooth accessories. To complement these, the company announced today that it had begun online sales of add-on software for its mobile terminals via www.nokia.com, beginning with a large selection of applications for the Nokia 9210 Communicator.
In mobile network infrastructure, Nokia estimates the overall market to be flat to slightly positive in 2002. However, the company sees its own accessible market expanding by more than 10% during the coming year as operators in the Americas convert from TDMA to GSM/EDGE, and as Japan and Korea join the WCDMA community. As a recent example of this trend, US operator Cingular Wireless announced it had chosen Nokia as a major supplier for its next generation GSM/EDGE network infrastructure.
Nokia intends to strengthen its position in the GSM infrastructure market, where it currently holds an approximate 30% market share. Backed by estimates that it would deliver approximately 100,000 3G WCDMA carriers during 2002, the company continues to target a leading 35% share of the WCDMA market.
[?100,000 3G WCDMA carriers? - ?base stations?]
Speaking to investors, Nokia top management emphasized the importance of the recent industry commitment to create service platforms based on open standards. Management also elaborated on Nokia's mobile software strategy to license its mobile terminal software platform and client components to other handset vendors. Based on the benefits achieved through the emerging standard service platforms, Nokia forecasts the value of the global mobile services market will reach USD 385 billion this year, and will grow to an estimated USD 810 billion market in 2006.
Management offered further information on Club Nokia, which currently has approximately 10 million members. Nokia estimates that, the number of active Club Nokia members will grow to around 50 million by 2004. The company also forecasts that Club Nokia revenues will reach
EUR 1 billion in 2004.
Nokia remains comfortable with the overall fourth quarter 2001 guidance given in conjunction with its third quarter release on October 19, 2001. In 2002, year-over-year quarterly development is anticipated as follows: slightly negative revenue growth for the first quarter, with low double-digit revenue growth for the second quarter accelerating to 25-35% revenue growth during the fourth quarter at the latest. Both Nokia's infrastructure and mobile phone businesses are expected to show sales growth of about 15% for the full-year 2002.
Nokia Networks' Pro Forma operating margins are expected to increase from around 10% in the first half of 2002 to the mid-teens in the second half, while Pro Forma operating margins in Nokia Mobile Phones are expected to remain at around the high teens throughout 2002. Nokia Ventures Organisation is expected to post a Pro Forma loss of around EUR 200 million for 2002.
Backed by continuing good profitability and efficient net working capital management, the company expects operating cash flow during 2002 to remain at healthy levels. <<
- Eric - |
