Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (4478)	11/27/2001 12:26:33 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 36161

great post re: "unfavorable trend uniformity" I agree entirely with his thinking.. I'll repeat: ...all we have here is a "Student Body Left" - Fed/ESF-PPT & Wall St insider prop job here... waiting to draw Mr & Mrs Main St back into the market...whereby they can then withdraw their "manipulated" prop-job money (and profits) right back out....and leave Ma & Pa Kettle's 401K, IRA & Mutual Fund accounts to absorb the 50%ish pullback of this rally. Today both Catapillar & John Deere had less than sterling news come out. On one of the companies; I think it was "Cat" - the company is calling for a slight increase in sales for 2002; while a major analyst who just conducted a survey of CAT's largest dealers - found they predict a 20% DECLINE in their CAT sales (and their orders from CAT) for 2002... I don't think the anticipation of this recent market snapback rally being a sign that the market is allready beginning to price in the end of the recession & the recovery ahead is correct....quite the contrary in actuality. This wasn't a free market post Sept. 11th... so drawing any conclusions from this recent move is flawed thinking drawn from tainted data imho... and untill we see the US Mfg industry turn...no cigar~ It amazes me that virtually all of the "free thinkers" in this market like Stephen Roach, Doug Cliggot, Bill Gross & Kasriel - (as opposed to paid pitchmen/frontman lackey's with no credibility like AJC, Battapaglia, Tom Galvin etc)... are not buying into the recovery, or that present shareprices offer any real compelling "value", or that nearterm (6 mos out) expectations should be anything more than cautious....their stance here should be heeded ~ Here's a couple of interesting market comments: Bill Gross - see's ["the ascendancy of caution, not hope, and the protection of principal at the expense of return."] Peter Bernstein: [" “The analysis provided here describes the setting, motivation, and the process leading to the death of the equity cult. There is no reason why its demise has to be abrupt. The cult in its previous incarnation took ten years to die and another ten years or more of bull market to reflower. But a world where investors sell on rallies is a very different world from one where they buy on dips and where equities are the unchallenged path to the fulfillment of promises.”] Look at the NAZ 2 year chart here and tell me this is a bullish chart !?!?! finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l Unless the NAZ took out 2160ish on this last upside run; all the 2 year chart is showing - is a textbook perfect Bear staircase still heading down....nothing more than a series of lower highs & lower lows. PS: ...if there is a 2nd round of domestic terrorism coming - it will be around Xmas for maximium psychological and economic impact....I wouldn't be leaving ANY trading profits on the table here going into the holidays... and gold stocks are offering a gift-horse re-entry opp for those who missed the first run & a defensive hedge going into this time frame would be prudent imo - for even those non-goldbugs.... just my .02 cents.

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