I haven't been watching them intraday, because it's rather tedious waiting for the inevitable crash (which might come with the full moon, funnily enough). It's like watching a drunken party while having to sit it out as the designated driver. Everyone's so loopily exuberant, now that they've thoroughly re-trained themselves to think (or not think, I should say) as they did in the last action-packed thriller, "Bubble I."
The fans of "Bubble II" even staged a brief rally today, after deciding to ignore the irrelevant consumer confidence numbers. Once the last of the lemmings and lunatics are lined up near the cliff, I suppose the market will head down, astonishing everyone.
I thought the correction might occur near the declining 200-day SMA's, but some seem to think the indexes will break through those. On what basis? "Cuz the market's going up, morons, despite the bears' BS and scare tactics."
I thought, too, that the same articulate contingent might succeed in pushing the long-term complacency indexes to 100. By that time, they might have recovered some of their losses from the previous crash (maybe half of their losses?), and be in the mood to sell. In any case, when the market does fall, they'll vanish into the woodwork again.
Here are the CI's now. I don't know whether they hit 100 earlier today.
ST Naz CI: 92.201, 98.939
MT Naz CI: 93.419, 99.105
LT Naz CI: 87.582, 89.576
ST S&P CI: 87.973, 93.317
MT S&P CI: 91.621, 95.443
LT S&P CI: 86.775, 86.559 |
