Hi, Peter - The debate continues... I just can't see where, or how, this is going to end. My sense is, yes, WLANs will make incursions into operators' revenues, both fixed and mobile.
The question is, how much, and how long will it take?
I agree with elmat's comments that we ought to be watching Microsoft, who have been quietly present through all aspects of the 5 GHz IAG's progression....nevertheless, 802.11b, for now, is certainly blocking the wind to 802.11a-minus-"b"-to-g's >g< sails...
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Survey: Local wireless networks to nip 3G sales
By Reuters
November 26, 2001, 2:10 p.m. PT
news.cnet.com
LONDON--Fast Internet access over small wireless networks in restaurants, hotels and airports will soon start hurting telecommunications operators, a new survey found Monday.
More than 20 million Europeans will use some 90,000 open Wireless Local Area Networks (WLANs) by 2006, market research group Analysys said. Today there are up to 20,000 WLAN users, most in the United States.
Corporate users on the road are expected to use these WLANs extensively to get on the Internet and connect to their office, using their laptop, handheld computer or smart cell phone.
Wireless-telecommunications operators stand to lose some 30 percent of the third-generation (3G) data and voice telephony revenues they expect to generate from corporate employees, Analysys said.
3G networks will be launched in Europe next year by mobile operators such as Vodafone and Orange.
Public WLANs could be generating $2.64 billion (3 billion euros) of revenues by 2006 and could be reducing average revenue per corporate subscriber of phone networks to around $396 a year from more than $572.
WLANs offer much cheaper Internet connections than 3G phone networks, because they can be set up with just a few cheap base stations in so-called hot spots such as hotels, cafes, railway stations, public buildings or airports.
Unlike a 3G phone network, these local area networks do not cover areas outside the hot spot and can be operated by the proprietor of the venue.
Coffee chain Starbucks has already announced it will install WLAN networks in its outlets.
The popularity of WLANs depends on a number of uncertain factors, which are expected to be resolved within the next 12 months, Analysys said.
One problem is that there are different WLAN standards, which do not work together. Also, some countries, such as Britain and Italy, limit the use of radio spectrum in which WLANs operate.
Analysys expects most problems to be resolved and said airports, conference centers and train stations will almost all have public WLANs by 2006.
Thousands of companies worldwide are already installing WLANs, but these won't be public and cannot be accessed by nonemployees.
news.cnet.com |
