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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 36.82+1.5%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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To: GVTucker who wrote (150046)11/28/2001 12:39:55 PM
From: Saturn V  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
Ref <Eric Chen has been tracing Intel's raw wafer and photoresist demand for a while now, with the logic that if his data is accurate, it can provide a 4 to 6 week lead on Intel's output. September was unusually strong, which led to strong October sales. Intel's October and November raw wafer and photoresist were weak according to Chen, which would lead to weak Nov and Dec output >

Eric may have the right data but can draw grossly incorrect conclusions.

Firstly the time delay from a wafer start to a shipping product is longer than 4-6 weeks. So the timing in his model is wrong.

Next he is totally ignoring the impact of the conversion to 0.13 micron. As the microprocessor product line is converted to 0.13 micron, you need fewer wafers and other consumables like photoresist. Thus you can have a dramatic decrease in the number of wafers consumed,accompanied by a dramatic increase in units manufactured, if Intel converts overnight to 0.13microns, and Eric's model becomes absolutely meaningless. However Intel ramps up newer technologies instead of an overnight conversion. During a new technology transition period following wafer starts and wafer fab consumables is asinine. If he followed the package piecepart consumption and packaging consumables, he might have better luck.
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