ST trading and other random thoughts:
AMAT bouncing at 40 is bullish. This is exactly what should be expected, if support at 40 is getting reestablished. I did nothing today, I'm going to give it another day or two, but if we don't get below 40 this week, I will buy back those covered calls. Today's close reinforces how critical 40 is for this stock.
Long bond interest rates, commodity prices, and the Nasdaq all look to have set multi-year double-bottoms, and bounced (unless the last 2 months is random ST noise). The concurrence of those 3 events is very bullish. A Nasdaq bounce, by itself, even a 50% bounce, could be just another Bear Rally. But, if all three of those double bottoms hold into next year, I'm going to re-assess my Sell-All-Rallies strategy. Currently sitting on 27% cash, which I am comfortable with into January.
re ENE: my thoughts match yours. Making money means being able to accurately predict the future, based on seeing some historical pattern that you expect to continue into the future. That's true no matter what the strategy or time frame. And, with ENE, there is zero certainty about the future, no past patterns that can be depended on, and a long list on unknowns. I, too, looked at the stock today, thought about a ST trade (buy beginning at 0.8, and every 0.05 on down, sell on any 50% bounce). But I did nothing. Even at 0.60, the stock may have no floor under it. |
