You are correct. I missed your post. I apologize.
But I do have a feeling that your only solution for Microsoft is "OK, big guy. I am the newest and most advanced creature. I am the future. You shouldn't defense yourself. Your best way out is suicide."
It's not suicide to reinvent yourself, rebuild from scratch, to get rid of the ball and chain that is attached to you foot and dragging you down to the bottom of the pool.
And, that's what Windows has become for Microsoft -- a ball and chain, a crutch. It's a crutch that hobbles Micrsoft in everything it does, but especially in embracing the internet. Everything Microsoft does has to be vetted first to make sure it "protects the franchise."
All that legacy code . . .
All that installed base . . .
All those upgrade customers, now up for grabs . . .
What would Microsoft do without Windows? That's what Microsoft should be doing now.
My anwser will be "No, thanks. Before you can do anything to me, I will kill you first." :-)
A typical Microsaurus Rex response to change.
So much fear . . . So much denial . . .
Has Chairman Bill got you so scared that you'd rather kill the internet than try to adapt to it?
And that's what you've got to do -- adapt to the internet. Now, Windows is a fine piece of work. But, it's in the past. The future is here. The future is the internet. The netowrk is the computer. (oops, that's Scott McNealy's line!;))
Seriously, I do think Intenel is a revolution, but it has been overstated.
Yep. Overstated.
Any change or revolution will have there root at present or past. They all have all kinds of connection to the past. You wouldn't find anything in the human history that a revolution was destroying every old things and building everything from scratch.
The internet is not about destroying, it's about building -- building a new communications medium that will bring people together, save businesses billions and, in some cases, be a lifeline to the outside world.
The internet is a paradigm shift. It shifts the center of gravity in computing from the desk top to the network. It's about taking what's good from the past, tossing the rest, and going forward into the future.
Someday, it will be possible to say, "Why would I want to rely on my crummy hard drive to store my data, when I have a nice, secure, reliable (cough-cough) network server to store it on. No headaches, no hassles -- just upload it and forget it. Now, the "cough-cough" was an allusion to the fact we are not there yet, not by a long shot. But it's coming.
If you have not yet done so, you should go read some of the articles on George Gilder's web site. ( gildertech.com ) They're old, but they still paint a pretty good map of (to use a phrase dear to the hearts of Microsofties everywhere) "The Road Ahead." There's even one article which recounts a meeting Gilder had with the Big Boss himself, Chairman Bill.
( forbes.com )
Microsoft has made a lot of noises in the media, but has it really changed all that much since this meeting took place? It's come a ways, but my answer is, "no." And your response supports my belief that I am right. Maybe you disagree. If so, let's hear why.
Even a revolution is a slow process, it changed the world generally, not suddenly. How long it takes for monkey to revolute to a human, thousands of thousand years.
I think you are confusing "evolution" and "revolution." "Evolution" is a long, slow process, where you move in slow, small steps, over a long period of time, from where you are to where you will be. The status quo stays mostly the smae, just slowly mutates, and the changes are often imperceptible when they happen. Revolution is a sudden, cataclysmic leap into the unknown, in which the stats quo is overthrown, a new order takes power, and most everything that came before becomes obsolete. It's kind of like the difference between having a smooth upgrade path from Windows to NT to Memphis on your PC, as opposed to having to rip out your PC because it's obsolete and replace it with something entirely new.
It is understandable that, as the agent of the status quo, Microsoft favors an evolutionary approach rather than a revolutionary one. Microsoft makes fun of Netscape's "rip and replace" recipe, telling customers instead to go with Microsoft's recipe for "protecting your investment." That way, the customer doesn't stray from the appointed upgrade path, and the money keeps flowing to Microsoft.
Rip and replace? You betcha! Revolutinary times call for revolutioary measures.
I don't quite believe what you described the future in your post. Even it was true, how long it will take for it to happen? 5 years? 10 years? How long we have talked about "Information Age"? What's happened now?
Go read Gilder's article about his meeting with Gates. He sounded then just like you do now -- just as you'd expect from someone in charge of a middle-aged, "middle-band" company.
I wonder, how would Chairman Bill respond to these same arguments today?
How many percentage of US household own a PC or "Internet Information Device"? How many percentage world wide? Amonh those who owns a PC, how many of them are using Internet?
You probably know the percentages better than I do.
All I know is that that the rate of growth in the internet is accelerating. The growth of bandwidth is accelerating. Eventually, it's grwing faster than Moore's law, and there's nothing Microsoft can do about it.
I think you are too excited about Internet, too optimal. (I think you mean, optimistic)
I plead GUILTY!!
I admit it, when I first saw the internet, I was amazed. It is the single most powerful, important development of my lifetime. It's power and impact never cease to blow me away. It has done more good for human freedom and dignity, in the few years it's been around, than all the missles and bombers in the U.S. armed forces could do in the last 50 years.
And, the internet with high-speed access is the same, but even better.
We are still at very earlier age of Information Age. There are still a lot of room for PC and desktop software to grow worldwide. Just in China, even in Beijing, there are less than 5% household owns a PC. It grows very fast though. I don't think in the near future at least this decade that people will abandon their desktop. Internet is a thread to Microsoft, it is also a huge opportunity for Microsoft's future growth. As I said, any revolution has their connection to the past, we owned the past, we can use our present advantage to "embrace and extend" the future. You are expecting a big jump. I am expecting a walk or a run, I think I have a more solid ground than you have.
You go right on thinking like this. Meanwhile, Netscape and others will eat your lunch.
Meanwhile, I look forward to hearing your reply. |
