Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 268.79

+4.6%

Jan 2 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (56463)	11/28/2001 9:52:04 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (4) of 70976

Jacob, Lets consider AMAT and see if it supports your reasoning. An optimistic scenario is $20B and $5.50 EPS in 2005. With low interest rates, lets give it a 35 multiple. That gets us a price of $192.50 in 2005. $40 seems a small amount to pay as a discount of $192.50 3+ years out. AMAT just announced a new process chamber and new purchased assets. Every new AMAT product is likely to reach at least a 50% market share. I am beginning to really understand why AMAT only fell to $27 during the panic. I think that similar, but slightly less persuasive, arguments have and will continue to hold up ALTR, XLNX, LLTC, MXIM, KLAC, NVLS, and ASML. All the world's economic hopes and dreams depend on the fundamental technology these companies have their hands into. I am not inclined to sell them at current prices and I will be reluctant at the recently posted higher targets. As the recovery draws closer, I think we should join the LTB&H crowd and enjoy the fact that we have picked winners and got pretty good prices.

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