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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (49242)	11/29/2001 10:19:30 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) of 54805

there is no evidence that WLL is viable in developing markets - the most recent proof of this is the way Qualcomm had to become the majority owner of Vesper in Brazil in order to prevent a possible bankruptcy. Check Cricket's numbers.... The WLL that will be deployed in India is going to be following Cricket's model....not Vesper's. Vesper was unable to sell mobile handsets until AFTER they were already on the brink of bankruptcy. India is going to allow city-wide roaming along with the sale of mobile handsets at rates of about a penny a minute. No charges for in-bound calls. the loss of the 80 million sub TDMA block to GSM was a devastating blow to the global growth prospects of second-generation CDMA. as a result, CDMA's share of global subs is in steady decline right now and has been for the past 18 months or so. It was absolutely a huge loss....but most of CDMA's marketshare decline was the result of 12 months of no growth in the Korean market. The government mandated that SK Telecom/Shinsegi had to lose marketshare. Not much you can do about that. CDMA's share of global subs is in steady decline right now and has been for the past 18 months or so. True....and it has been acknowledged multiple times. Check Eric and MB's posts. how many people on this thread have even publicly acknowledged the decline of CDMA market share globally? it happens to have major implications on economies of scale concerning both network and phone equipment. False....marketshare of new subs has been dropping slightly. However, marketshare on total number of handsets sold has risen dramatically over the last year. Total of about 410 million handsets sold during '00....of these 60 million were CDMA....14.6% This year, Nokia is estimating 380 million total handsets(though others are estimating between 380m-400m)....and the estimated number of CDMA handsets is 75 million. This represents 19.7%. Next year's marketshare is currently estimated at 20.5%. These are the numbers that determine economies of scale. the depth of denial has reached the stage where people are actually taking the most important factual arguments against CDMA (India, Latin America and China) and are attempting to use them to argue in favor of Qualcomm. There have never been CDMA networks in either China or India. In fact both governments had pretty much mandated GSM use until late last year. It is hard to see how any numbers out of these countries can be used to highlight a CDMA failure. OTOH....Mexico has been a clear failure for CDMA. The CDMA operators have had their heads handed to them by Telmex. Brazil, Peru and Agentina are probably draws, Venezuala a CDMA victory. The CDMA operators in Latin America will continue to grow....but, if they are going to gain marketsharen in LA, Qualcomm will need Bell South to convert their International operations to CDMA. this is like trying to argue that communism was a success by pointing to North Korea. The facts are generally more complicated than pithy one-liners.... Slacker

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