Gold_Tutor, hope I can answer your questions. First a little background. In general the doctrine is that
infection with a virus leads to lifelong memory on part of immune system for that virus, i.e., one can't get the virus twice. That is probably true but only in part. In case of most cold like viruses, echoviruses, polio, and the like there are probably what actually are sub-clinical (no evidence of clinial disease) re-infections after a certain period of time after vaccination or infection. That is not apparently the case with smallpox. Merck has been quietly pursuing this and I was surprised they did not get the contract. They were discussing with the Secretary of Health Tommy Thompson the idea of pursuing a safer vaccine but time for testing was limited by need for readiness
for a terrorist attack now ( will still take almost a year to ramp up). The vaccine for smallpox does
have serious complications at a rate of ~1/1000, most serious being encephalomyelitis (infection of brain and
spinal cord. The vaccination probably only lasts for ten years. That is the data I discussed with my friend at Merck,
not a physician, but a Ph.D type much smarter than I am in infectious disease and immunization. Those at particular risk from vacciantion are those who are immunocomprimised, such as people on chemotherapuetic agents for cancer, those with inherited immune deficiencies and people positive for AIDS/HIV virus who could well die from the vaccination. One popular myth that is spread erroneously by the media is that people are infectious before they get sick. That flies in the face of all documented experience in this disease. People are not infectious with smallpox until the appearance of the rash but by then they are feeling like they have the worst case of flu in their lives. It is not like mildly or asymptomatic disease that is highly contagious such as HIV ( a virus) and TB (a bacterium). In all due respect for the survivor of smallpox on this thread I do not take lightly the documented features of smallpox in the standard textbooks of medicine ( see Harrison's textbook, etc.) There is a 30-35% mortality and the survivors are often hideously scarred and very sick while ill with the disease. It is true that
chicken pox is a serious disease, especially in adults. I still remember almost verbatum the lecture in medschool days...15% of adults get serious viral pneumonia, 15% of those die. In my view, and one shared by my high-placed friend's at Merck , delvery of anthrax is not easy, but CLEARLY doable. The spores are UV sensitive and must be aerosolized for delivery in a medium that stays suspended for a period of time in a public place, or sprayed from the air, necessarily at night. On the other hand, a perpetrator with a spray delivery device sitting in a john at O'Hare in the men's room, spraying the mist of bugs into the air under cover of noise of a nearby flushing urinal could easily infect hundreds in an afternoon outing, getting through checkpoints with what looks like shaving cream or an empty and innocuous looking plastic bottle of water with a plastic sprayer also in carry on, perhaps disassembled. There are johns outside of checkpoints anyway. It is not rocket science and Mike at Merck knows it as well as I do. For ANYONE who thinks this is excessive paranoia I suggest reference to the footage on every major network in the world at 7am EST September 11, 2001.
Hope that clears up some of your questions. I do not consider this OT for the gold thread and make no apologies
to that effect. And I amplify further my remarks regarding Islam, referring to no less than Salman Rushdie himself
who says that conceiving the current conflict as anything other than a war between the West which ironically
enough includes Russia and China in this case, and Islam is to be blind. To see it otherwise is tantamount to civilization suicide. (Reference his comments in editorial in London Times, the date escapes me, since 9-11 anyway.)
God by whatever name but allah you call IT, help us all and give us the guts to fight as dirty as it takes.
Jim Black |
