Jim:
This is the kind of 'counterintuitive' approach which has paid off for me in the past. BZH is a homebuilder that aims at entry level and 1st tier trade up buyers. With all of the cut in interest rates, you have new market share. Everything should be rosy with all the interest rate cuts, right?
However, I see euphoria and an inverse January effect 'bubble'. (inverse of the January effect, i.e. ....losers exaggerate down and winners exaggerate up as people sell or hold due to taxes)
This may peak higher for that reason, but as traders juggle with this concept, combined with the upcoming 'news', I think we will peak soon, if not already.
The other 'counter-intuitive' thing is the candlesticks...they showed it should have dropped a few days back...I commented on that but also said I was staying out because it felt wrong...(lucky choice). Well, right now we are looking at a potential three white knights (soldiers?). Supposedly that means it will go on a tear, and with the 'buy' rating, I'm being totally obstinate and shorting it here.
My only concern is some big buck buys coming through..fund buying. But my guess is this has to do with a decent place to park money through the end of the year.
Good luck to you, too. Though there may be as much as a 5 point upside interim, I think mid january this will be 15-20% lower, not a bad return for a month! I may buy and sell in between, however, for entertainment value...<grin>
Cosmo |
