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Strategies & Market Trends : Set the Controls For The Heart of the SUN

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To: Doug R who wrote (489)	6/27/1997 8:16:00 PM
From: Mr.Creosote	of 1156

Doug, I just came across this thread after having purchased and read DeMark's book. I am trying to better understand the sequential myself and get a feel for its ability to catch major market turns. I became intrigued by the recent call on IOM posted by Duane Davis a couple months ago at the bottom. After reading up on it I find that the sequential starts out as a simple indicator with well defined setups and countdowns ("9's" and "13's") but it begins to take on considerable complexity once the various "qualifiers" as well as the many variations of entry and exit stragies come into the picture. DeMark's book has nothing but succesfull calls in his charts painting a rosy picture for the indicator. However, somewhere in the book he admits that when it fails it REALLY fails and this itself is a powerful signal to use. For example the sequential detected an overbought IOM last year on its way up 20 points before its ultimate peak and anybody taking the sell signal would first lose a couple of points, then reversing his position and going long would have made him good money. Since DeMark chose to disclose the sequential to the public in his book, I assume that it no longer has much predictive value. If it did, why would he offer it to the public for the price a book? Having said that and knowing that Tom would probably not disclose if he is still using the sequential to make money for his own account or how successful he might be with it today, I would appreciate if someone knowledgable on this indicator like yourself or Duane Davis or Crossy can say something about its effectiveness in general. In other words if one was to take all the sequentials (or a select subset of them) generated in the last year would they have made any money? I am sure Tom knows the answer to this question but how many out there have a feel for its performance this year? I would be willing to work with somebody to put some light into this question and I am hoping to have the sequential programmed in this weekend for a scan test. Best regards, John Spanos

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