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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: ild who wrote (1091)11/29/2001 6:22:40 PM
From: TradeliteRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
Say what? Do you think I'm that smart? Someone on this thread asked me several weeks ago where I thought interest rates would be in three months.

Sorry.....these things are out of my control and not covered in the instructions that came with my crystal ball.

All I know for sure is that real estate---and the economy---go thru cycles. Cycles are as inevitable as the fact that grass turns green sometimes and the sky is blue sometimes.

What goes up eventually comes down to "correct." But in real esate, as in stocks--for as long as anyone has kept records--the long-term trend ...and I know some people don't want to accept this....is UP.

I recall an interesting article from Washingtonian Magazine about the heyday real estate days of the 1980s. By 1990-92, that article seemed humorous. But today, the homes featured in that article as selling for fabulous prices before the last recession, and which soon fell dramatically in price.... are now much more expensive than ever.

During the last recession, builders were anyone who knew how to hammer a nail, so a lot of cowboys were putting up speculative homes. (In fact, a very large home exists in my area that was built on a crummy lot on a busy four-lane road-----by the time it sold at a terrific loss, it had about 8 loans on it and the builder was penniless----this builder had migrated from depressed Texas to our *hot* area and got caught building a rookie house on crummy land that no one else would have touched.

Today, home builders are big, well-capitalized businesses, and are having a hard time finding enough land to build on to suit demand.

It's not a good time to hold your breath and wait for housing prices to be cut in half in heavily populated areas of this country, in my opinion.
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