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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 297.50-2.6%Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (1310)11/29/2001 6:23:02 PM
From: Return to Sender  Read Replies (1) of 95383
 
5:16PM Novellus (NVLS) 41.60 +2.15: -- Update -- During Q&A, company says it's becoming "less optimistic about its earlier prediction of an upturn in Q2. Hopefully, it's in Q3"....Call ending now...stock at 38.42.

4:55PM Novellus (NVLS) 41.60 +2.15: -- Update -- On mid-qtr call, company does not provide specific guidance for 2002, but appears to guide down for Q1...Mgmt says "current levels of shipments and revenue suggest a loss in Q1 and possibly Q2." Multex consensus for Q1 is a profit of $0.06...stock at 39.70.

4:48PM Novellus (NVLS) 41.60 +2.15: -- Update -- On mid-qtr call, company sees bookings of $105-$125 mln for Q4, which is below guidance provided on Oct 15 of $125-$150 mln. Shipments are expected to be $165 mln, slightly below $160 mln forecast from Oct 15...stock at 39.54.

4:44PM Novellus (NVLS) 41.60 +2.15: -- Update -- On mid-qtr call, company says overall business conditions have not changed. There is still excess capacity. Customers still have inventory although company has seen some reports of a bottom, but still not at the point to trigger a rapid expansion of capacity by customers...stock at 40.27.

4:41PM Novellus (NVLS) 41.60 +2.15: On mid-qtr conference call, company essentially affirms guidance. Sales for Q4 expected at $200 mln vs Multex consensus of $206.2 mln, however, EPS is expected at $0.11, a penny better than consensus but in-line with Oct 15 guidance.....stock at 39.85.

2:25PM Broadcom (BRCM) 45.26 -1.69 (-3.6%): --Update-- CSFB thinks company was deliberately not being overly optimistic and referring to limited visibility because it is coming up on the end of its stock refresh for employees, which it began in late-June. Consequently, believes BRCM has an incentive to keep from sounding overly bullish. Wouldn't be surprised to see stock sell off further as company continues to water-down comments until end of stock refresh, which occurs around 12/21.

1:19PM Broadcom (BRCM) 44.52 -2.43 (-5.2%): -- Update -- Has experienced huge volume over the last 45 minutes, with stock plummeting more than 4 pts since presentation at CSFB conference began. Weakness has carried over to other Comm IC names, most notably PMCS, which has backed up roughly 5% since BRCM began speaking.

1:01PM Broadcom (BRCM) 45.33 -1.62 (-3.5%): -- Update -- At CSFB conference, comments on news out this morning that AT&T Broadband to purchase 200,000 of Motorola's newly introduced DCT2500 digital set-top terminals in 2002; says expects to begin ramping around the middle of the yr... Overall, tone of presentation was mixed; most significant pt was that company has little visibility into when its key customers will begin experiencing recovery in business.

12:52AM Broadcom (BRCM) 45.70 -1.25 (-2.7%): -- Update -- At CSFB conference, acknowledges that long-haul market is overbuilt; not trying to protect that biz. Prospects in the metro market look better.

12:42AM Broadcom (BRCM) 46.10 -0.85 (-1.8%): Company presenting at the CSFB conference; reminds that biz enterprise networking market has been plagued by inventory issues; seeing some early upgrades going on as part of gigabit transition. Inventory workdown happening, but visibility still weak into the timing of capital spending... Stock tumbles to new intraday low.

12:36AM Xilinx (XLNX) 36.21 +1.76 (+5.1%): Presenting at CSFB conference, says it is making progress in burning inventory, expects to reduce days of inventory to 120-130 by end of year. Expects to generate $30-50 mln in cash this qtr. Sees demand returning in 2H02.

11:59AM Conexant (CNXT) 15.67 +0.60 (+4.0%): -- Update -- Presenting at CSFB conference, says backlog in core biz improving for Mar qtr; reiterates sequential decline in Mindspeed division (due to be spun-out), but sees bottom in this qtr for Mindspeed biz. Taking share from ADI in direct conversion. Growth drivers in 2002 should be ADSL and cable modems.

11:24AM Sanmina (SANM) 20.08 +0.22: -- Correction -- In an earlier comment, we wrote that the S&P 500 reweight on SANM after the SCI acquisition would be a buy of 17 mln shares and that the merger has closed; that merger will not close until after the vote on Dec 6; after which time this reweight should take effect.

10:36AM Intersil (ISIL) 32.80 -1.06: -- Update -- Worth noting that the ISIL/TXN issue did come up two weeks ago; on Nov 15, there were comments regarding who was providing 802.11b chipsets to Linksys; SG Cowen said at that time that ISIL had retained the business. Suffice it to say that concerns about TXN competition are not new for ISIL.

10:31AM Intersil (ISIL) 32.99 -0.87: Stock under pressure due to trading floor talk about competition from Texas Instruments (TXN), which appears to be based on a report from Blackfin Research; the report apparently indicates that TXN's technology has surpassed ISIL's both in the reach of its 802.11b wireless chipsets and the speed; also indicates that TXN has had some major OEM design wins. Hearing from some sources that this information has already been in the market, which might explain ISIL's bounce off the low of 31.00.

7:52AM Conexant (CNXT) 15.07: -- Update -- Co raises Q1 rev guidance; total revs up 5-7% sequentially, wireless revs up 25% sequentially due to strong demand across wireless product portfolio.

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