Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 259.92

-1.1%

Dec 30 3:59 PM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (56667)	11/30/2001 1:25:01 PM
From: Alastair McIntosh	Read Replies (2) of 70976

Cary, I guess that $20 billion in sales for 2007-8 is possible if the next cycle lasts that long. As far as what will result in historical valuations if not rotten business and terrorist attacks, perhaps statements that rotten business will continue longer than expected will do it or perhaps more terrorist attacks. If consumer spending falls off next year (a possibility given increasing layoffs) we may see another significant dip towards the end of next year. However, I do take the view that visibility of $4 EPS will appear in the next few years with share prices over $100. I expect that the share price peak to trough ratio in this cycle will be much less than previous cycles as we appear to be bottoming much higher and I doubt that we will see price/sales ratios that occurred in early 2000. The recovery in the sector will be delayed by the fact that purchases being made for technological reasons are also adding capacity to some extent and tend to prolong the over-capacity problem. Al

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