that is not clear since Niles started that his analysis is based on asp alone. We know that Intel delayed and reduced the price-cuts which should push prices up.
Albert, because Niles is so downbeat, its hard to determine exactly what he is saying...it could be he's not sure. But what I get is that Intel is having a P4 production snafu while the rumors that Dell is taking more market share from CPQ and HWP probably are true, placing more demand on Intel for P4s. Unfortunately for Intel, the production problems seem to be keeping it from taking market share, and in fact, are helping AMD, while at the same time, also are keeping Intel's ASPs from dropping to the levels projected for this quarter....that, in turn, allows for Niles'
increase in forecasted EPS. In any case, we now know why AMD's stock has jumped in the last 4 weeks.
Intel has had production problems on and off for the past couple of years....do you know what the current problems are?
It is strange that Niles projected considerable increase in unit shipment and not only did not give much of a credit to that but recommended to unload intel after the news
I am a bit confused.
First, Niles is very down on tech. Secondly, most will agree that tech is ahead of itself and needs to pullback. Intel, alone, is up 15% in the last two weeks. So his comment to sell into earnings is not a surprise to me. Got to remember too that the two other prime markets for Intel, flash and communication chips, are pretty soft. In fact, I am hearing that currently, PC chips have the best [read lowest] inventory levels of all chips. FWIW.
ted |
