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Gold/Mining/Energy : Enron - Natural Gas Industry
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To: buffaloha who wrote (981)11/30/2001 2:28:35 PM
From: Bob Rudd   of 1433
 
Buff: It's been a major source of frustration to me that I can't find a way to effectively estimate or even bracket litigation risk in it's various manfestations. That said, I suspect the legal downside for DYN will prove to be modest. Unless the case is high probability, I doubt the BK judge will permit resources to be spent on it even if Enron managers have an ax to grind.
<<It seems if ENE can hold off the big lenders/creditors, then it can survive for a while and find a way out>>If there were a small, homogenous group of creditors and the facts were straightforward, and it were clear that a successor operating business would be the surest path for recovery for all concerned...I'd give this or a prepack a good chance....but given the diversity of creditor claims and interests and the complexity....No way. Creditor agreement would be needed and perspectives and interests are too variant for that, IMO. Once the secured holders claim their stuff, there's not gonna be much left...cause the trading biz depended on faith. I considered the possibility that a big DIP loan might make them viable under protection, but a lot of the guys big enough to do that are already on the hook...not that they won't get a DIP, just that it won't be large enough to support $3B/day trading biz.
All the above is relatively uninformed guesswork.
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