re: I guess that $20 billion in sales for 2007-8 is possible if the next cycle lasts that long
The historical pattern is: cycles never last that long. It has never happened, in the entire history of this industry. Assuming 2001 is the bottom of the cycle (measured by semiequip stock prices), then it is unreasonable to expect the next upcycle to peak 6 or 7 years later. The pattern has been 2 years, peak to peak, and (about) a year between peaks and troughs. Peaks in even years, troughs in odd years.
The reasons why this pattern exists, have not changed. There are many things I am uncertain of, but I am quite certain AMAT cannot maintain an upcycle for 6 or 7 years. I could, perhaps, be convinced of a 3-year-long upcycle, max. Which, (assuming 10/01 was the cycle bottom), brings the next cycle peak out to 10/04. The only way you get the next cycle peak further out than that, is if we haven't seen the cycle bottom yet.
And, IMO, 20B in orders for AMAT in 2004 (or 20B in sales in 2005) isn't reasonable, either. Think about how fast sales, margins, and profits in semis would have to increase, from now to 2004, in order for AMAT to have 20B in business then. A doubling of the already-artificially-inflated Bubble numbers. It just isn't possible.
So, 20B in sales is two cycle peaks away, which is so far over the horizon, anything said about it is pure speculation. |
