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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners
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To: techanalyst1 who wrote (9841)12/1/2001 3:42:04 PM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (3) of 57684
 
re SEBL, Tom himself says that the leading CRM player will have 50% market share and he is sitting on 75% share. PSFT is winning deals and Siebel7 should have been out sooner. There is a product cycle gap going on at SEBL. SEBL is the CRM gorilla long-term but they are going through what BEA went through. You lose share for a while and then you stabilize. BEA has been losing share to Websphere (IBM) but I think BEA will stabilize sometime soon. I am long BEAS as a long-term play... They could have another sloppy quarter but screw it... its time to think longer-term on core holdings. I am not long SEBL but apparently, others are ready to think long-term on it. I have to do more work on this ERM market opportunity. Tom seems to be talking out of both sides of his mouth on that one. He says they will dominate it but he also says all the money is in vertical expertise but ERM portals look like horizontal apps from my point of view. BEA had some nice powerpoint slides on portal technology at their analyst day and it seems like horizontal infrastructure is better suited at the appserver layer. Tom is calling it a $26b market in 2005 or something... He wants 50% share of that market too... Starting to sound more and more like Larry Ellison on that one.
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