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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: William H Huebl who wrote (56398)	12/2/2001 10:53:54 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Those martingale systems are terrible. I can not believe someone recommending systems that escalate bets when one is losing. This is exactly opposite of proper money management. I do not propose to figure out split martingale but let's talk straight doubling of bets when you lose. If you lose 6 bets in a row, on the 7th bet assuming you started betting $5, you need to bet $160 just to break even. Two more losses and you are are at the house limit perhaps, needing to win a $500 bet JUST TO BREAK EVEN. This is absurd. Over time you will have winning streaks and losing streaks. Proper money management says you would be better off doubling up (letting it ride) on the winning streaks and betting single units (original bets) on a losing streak. Suppose you say a max of letting it ride at 5 times. If you lose 5 in a row you will be out $25. If you win 5 in a row, 10-20-40-80-160 you pull off $160. Odds says you will have an equal number of 5 wins in row as well as 5 losses in a row. You tell me, does it make sense to collect $25 on 5 wins in a row and lose $160 on 5 losses in row? A better system yet is to pull some off the table such as this. Win the first and you have $10. Let it ride and win and you have $20. Pull $5 off. now, no matter what happens you are at least even. If you win that bet you are $30 up and let $20 of it ride. Now you can lose that bet and an additional 3 bets in a row at $5 each and still be even. This is proper money management and the only way to have a reasonable chance of winning IMHO. The odds are in their favor but if you are at all streaky (and those days will happen), then you will be winning more on the good streaks than you will be losing on the bad ones. Martingale systems suck IMHO as you are increasing your bets when losing and run the risk of getting wiped out or bumping up against the house limit, praying for a win (just to break even) should you start off with a series of losses. BTW red/black odd even is not 50/50 becaue of 0 and 00 (green) 2/38 or 1/14 I believe. Over the long haul the house will kill you on that %. In Europe (I am told that there is only one 0 and the house only takes 1/2 your bet it it comes up). Not sure if that is still true but I read that in a book a long time ago. A huge huge difference in odds against you in the US vs Europe if that is still true. M

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