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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: carranza2 who wrote (12400)	12/2/2001 1:15:38 PM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (2) of 281500

Is Arafat in control or is he directing the latest terror? very interesting question. I read a fascinating paper the other day on this very subject by one of the two or three leading experts on Palestinian public opinion--a guy named Khalil Shikaki--that says we need to understand that there's a three-way fight going on inside the Palestinian community, among the "old guard" nationalists (Arafat and his PA colleagues), the "young guard" nationalists (local West Bank and Gaza activists who were behind both the first and now the second intifada), and the Islamists. Continuation of the status quo would favor the Islamists, unilateral withdrawal would favor the young guard, and only real and quick progress towards a negotiated peace settlement--or thorough-going domestic reform--can save the old guard. It's apparently going to be published in the next issue of Foreign Affairs, and is worth checking out. I'm not sure I buy the entire argument, but it does convince one that there are no options that are both good and likely. tekboy@stormcoming.com

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