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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 36.15

-0.6%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Joseph Pareti who wrote (150729)	12/2/2001 2:05:08 PM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (1) of 186894

Joseph, Re: "while microprocessors' unit shipment in 2001 is down x% AMD's shipment is flat to nominally up measured in terms of y-to-y unit shipments . This gives us for the first time double digit m/s (dollar?) growth. And hence I can hardly wait till the business gets good" Double digit growth? Hardly. If we assume we are talking about unit market share, AMD's share at the end of 2000 was 17%. They would have to have 27% or greater at the end of Q4 to make the statement true. They are at 21% right now. Want to calculate the odds of AMD gaining 6% in market share? Intel may have a shortage, but it's certainly not going to let AMD gain 2.1 million more units at Intel's expense (6% of 35 million processors per quarter). If we are talking about dollar market share, that's even harder to believe. AMD's ASPs at the end of 2000 were $95 for K7, and that was when they were selling Athlons for >$300. I doubt they have more Athlon XP units than the high end Athlons at the end of last year not only to account for reaching the same ASP, but surpassing it by double digits. Like Elmer said, Jerry's a liar, plain and simple. We'll wait for proof at the end of this quarter before making it official though. But one thing is for sure - if AMD does gain double digits in market share (unit or $), I'd have to give them far more credit. I just don't think it's possible, and Jerry was probably speaking out of his a$$, as usual. wbmw

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