The only hope, say some Palestinians, is for America to recognise that Mr Arafat, mortally weak, can broker a ceasefire only with the consent, not coercion, of the Islamists, and on the basis of progress towards peace and immediate relief for his people. This would still call for the required “100% effort” from Mr Arafat. But it would also need real pressure on Mr Sharon. America should exert this pressure, says Khalil Shikaki, a Palestinian analyst, not out of affection for Mr Arafat but out of concern for what may come after him. “Hamas is already part of the Palestinian mainstream. One more year of the intifada and it will be the mainstream,” he predicts.
Yup--that's the line he takes in that paper I read. And he backs it up with what seem to be very solid readings of the dynamics within the Palestinian community. Even he recognizes, however, that the ways out of the dilemma--a major negotiated settlement, or dramatic reform of the PA, or both--are highly unlikely. Bad times coming...
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