Peter, as I look at all of the charts regarding the home builders you listed, every one of them gapped up on Friday with good volume. Most of them are now trading at or above their 200 day moving average. Trading above the 200 day MA is very bullish for the home builders. It indicates a strong uptrend.
I expect some profit taking today, but watch the gaps. If any of the home builders close the gap today, it indicates a topping out of the stock.
HOV looks strong, LEN is the laggard of the group. RYL looks the weakest.
The weekly chart for TOL shows the stock approaching overbought. Money flows into the stock still look strong.
I'll leave the fundamentals to you. You can decide if they can influence the share price to drop. Right now there isn't a sign of a trend reversal pattern. That can change quickly, but it isn't there yet.
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NVR is in a nice uptrend, stock looks strong on good volume. Stock has reached overbought and is now testing the upper Bollinger Band on the weekly.
This is a good place to short as profit taking has always occurred at this point if you'll notice the historical performance. However, in most cases, it was wise to buy the dip.
stockcharts.com[h,a]waclyimy[pb20!b10!d20,2!b50!b200!f][vc60][iut!Ub14!Ua12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lc5!Ll14!Lj[$spx]]
The home builders are being held up by low mortgage rates and this sector is one of the few who have companies who are actually earning real dollars.
The gaps that showed up on Friday are critical for providing a clue as to the direction of the trend. Close the gap and it may be a good opportunity to short some more.
dabum |
