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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: Suresh who wrote (9870)	12/3/2001 3:36:13 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (1) of 57684

Suresh, >>you will see things are not yet getting better.. At the bottom of an economic cycle, I am not watching the attendance at SUN and CSCO seminars. In fact, I never do. There might be some kind of a correlation there as it pertains to stock performance but I would guess that it is related to only extreme readings and is actually a contrarian indicator. I do not happen to think we are off to the races but the good news is; nobody else does either. Most investors think this is a head fake in Q4. They blow off this stock move as April all over again. I see fundamental differences. Of course I could be wrong but I think the odds are strongly for any deviation in expectations to come on the upside. That is my opinion. Keep in mind though that business activity was absolutely terrible in April and the market went straight up for 6 weeks. Even if we assume that business activity HAS improved, that doesn't mean a retracement of some of the gains since 9/24 is impossible. My point is, early indicators of the BUSINESS side of the economy have been signaling a recovery is coming and now companies are confirming this macro data with actual sales activity... I am much more optimistic on the 6-mo outlook than I was in Q2... >>I think most of the tech stocks will see growth based on 98 revenues and not on 99 or 2000 revenues. However cost structure of the major tech companies are not reaching the level of 98 levels. I am not sure what your point is... If you are saying that companies should be setting today's expense structures based on 1998 revenue levels then I would have to disagree with you. 1998 revenues mean nothing to me at this point...

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