Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis

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To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (25402)	12/4/2001 2:02:23 AM
From: Jack T. Pearson	Read Replies (1) of 52237

All of the major indices (DJI, COMPX, NDX, SPX) are at the lower trend line for the intermediate trend that bounds the rally we have had since late September. They hit the same trend line last Wednesday and did a small bounce on Thursday. If we end tomorrow down, I don't want to be long. I think the rally was partly a correction to the 9/11 sell-off and partly in anticipation of a recovery during the second quarter next year. Signs for that recovery happening during the second quarter are quite mixed. Chip book-to-build is still below 1. Not much insider buying. Indications are that increases in retail sales are being financed out of savings. How long can that continue? Past New Years day? How will the "January effect" be funded next year. Bonus money will be in short supply and Christmas bills will be coming due. The extent of the Fed cuts generated optimism about the timing of a recovery that there is little hard evidence to support.

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