Crash and Burn 2001 Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Crash and Burn 2001

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (192)	12/4/2001 3:28:30 AM
From: Londo	Read Replies (1) of 207

This is a dangerous short in the long-term, but in terms of a quick trade off the merger, I think it'll work in the tune of a couple bucks (lets say a cover at about 14.50 a share). I'd cover at the end of Tuesday if the price limit isn't reached... SNPS paid a huge premium, but they're still buying about 10 times earnings (a gross adjustment is made here for revenue recognition issues), and I think in the long-term, this should be good for SNPS, since AVNT management clearly had their problems even after CDN. This leaves two players left in the industry, CDN and SNPS.. and with all the semiconductor companies going to upgrade to 0.08 or 0.13 micron, it's time for them to upgrade their software as well. SNPS is a top-notch company with good management, and good products.. it's also not very volatile, so a short or long position is a rather low-risk affair.

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