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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: HH who wrote (1604)6/28/1997 11:38:00 AM
From: P.Prazeres   of 94695
 
Heyward,

It is not what happens with the Fed this week that I was referring to.
It's the overall picture that they are controlling.
As out of the world as this sounds, the Fed will probably cut interest rates the next time it moves them...one of the driving forces behind this is a federal surplus by 2000, which would spark a reduction in US treasuries. If this scenario begins to play itself out and the markets begin to realize this, it would not be out of the question to see the long bond 100 basis points below its level of today 12 months from now, yes 5-3/4%...and thus the catalyst to ignite the secondary issues and allowing the chased Dow stocks to have their fundamentals catch up to them as opposed to their price catch "down" to their fundamentals.

Just some thoughts ...

Paulo
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