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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 36.38-1.3%Dec 22 3:59 PM EST
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To: wanna_bmw who wrote (150804)12/4/2001 11:46:53 AM
From: Windsock  Read Replies (3) of 186894
 
BMW - Re:"Paul, your post sounds just like Dan's - filled with assumptions and passed off like a fact."

All of the statements in Paul's calculations are absolutely solid facts with the exception that the assumption of 10,000 wafer starts per week. The wafer start numbers come from statements by Dan3. The die sizes and units sold come from AMD. The formula for complete die per wafer is a textbook calculation

If you don't believe Dan's wafer start #'s, try another assumption.

For a stunning result, assume that the wafer starts are 1/2 of Dan's stated number and amount to 5000 per week from 2 fabs. This is a disastrously low utilization number for 2 mega fabs.

The AMD good die yield would only be 54%, a total yield disaster !! Standard yields on a new process are 70% or better initially and go up from there to 80% or even 90% on a mature process.

It is no surprise that AMD is losing money with these yields while Intel is making money.
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