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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (9873)	12/4/2001 2:08:40 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (2) of 57684

>>I'm surprised the climate is not more bullish out 6 mos. I guess it is getting there. Most hedgies have switched from short selling ing based on fundamentals to just holding cash due to valuations. This was one hell of a slide in terms of the bottom of the 'V' or 'U' or whatever you want to call it... My view is that we are in an earnings 'V' but that the macro-economy is in something that is more 'U-ish'... I don't think most people understand the intricacies of quarterly sequentials... In my view, Q3 saw the smallest deal sizes and lowest close rates in a long time. Q4's deal sizes will tick up and closure rates should tick up creating a nice compare. Q1 is a crucial quarter though and who knows how that is going to turn out... A decent economy in Q1 would cause dramatic upside revisions to full-year 2002 estimates as operating leverage works its way sooner into Wall Street models. Stocks have discounted some of this but I think the risk is relatively limited unless Hamas or Al-Qaeda does something major... nodirtybombsplease by the way, did you see the picture of the American Taliban guy? The guy is from friggin Marin County....

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