ST trading:
Just amazing, how bad news is being ignored. I know I've said that already, but today really reinforced that. The news is nothing but war, chaos, bankruptcy, falling profits. NVLS says things are bad and getting worse, and, after a teeny dip, the ST uptrend resumes.
I thought about buying back those AMAT covered calls, at the close today, but I held off. This thing could just run, we could see 50 on AMAT this month. Yes, I know, that's an absurd price for AMAT, given current and 12M forward business conditions. But I'm not going to argue with the chart, which says 40 is being re-established as support. Above there, I see no resistance till 50. I'm not going to stand in the way of a stampeding herd of momentum investors.
I did, however, buy some JNPR put LEAPs (03P25) at the close. Sell when JNPR hits 20-22. JNPR resistance at 25-27, CSCO resistance at 20. JNPR will have flat sales and earnings for CY2002, telcos won't be increasing capex till 2003-2005, JNPR is losing market share to CSCO, and is at a forward PE of an unsustainable 25/0.45 = 56.
I'll think about NVLS put LEAPs if NVLS hits 43-45. |
