The end of the Arafat era
Analysis By Gerald M. Steinberg
(December 5) - Fifteen months after the Palestinian campaign of violence and terror began, it has evolved from a "low-intensity conflict," in the academic jargon, into a full-scale war. Following the brutal attacks and suicide bombings of the past week, the diplomatic and military limits on IDF responses have disappeared, and its full power is now being unleashed.
In the past few months, as the casualties from Palestinian terror increased, the hesitation and caution that characterized the government's responses to the first phases of Yasser Arafat's war eroded. The continuing war of attrition, with daily drive-by shootings and spasms of mass killing, became unacceptable, and warnings of chaos without Arafat lost any significance.
The fear of a radical Islamic leadership or anarchy is gone, and even the infinitely patient Shimon Peres no longer makes such claims. Whatever form the post-Arafat era might take, the hell of terrorist bombings is already here, and stripping the self-styled president of his remaining symbols and military forces no longer carries a cost. It may even accelerate the transition to a pragmatic Palestinian leadership, which, unlike Arafat, in not mired in the rejectionist ideology and Crusader analogies of 1947.
The Bush administration seems to have reached a similar conclusion, and has started to use Israeli terminology and reflect Israeli perspectives. The contributions of Egypt and Saudi Arabia to the coalition against terror proved negligible, and the efforts to distinguish between al-Qaida's brand of terror and Arafat's faded. US officials have joined in the condemnation of Arafat's revolving-door policy for terrorists, and of the incitement and double-speak among the Palestinian leadership.
The frantic efforts of Saeb Erekat and Hanan Ashrawi to resurrect the old myths and excuses of "occupation" and "settlements" to justify terrorism and hatred have lost their audience, even in Europe and Canada. After Anthony Zinni's mission was destroyed in its first days, the Americans recognize that a powerful IDF response is inevitable and offers the only hope for an eventual return to stability.
At the same time, the fears regarding broader regional conflict or internal opposition to the use of military force that characterized the Barak government have also faded. A combination of factors has led to further withdrawal of Egypt and Syria from a potential confrontation with Israel on behalf of the Palestinians.
Iraq is under constant American surveillance, and the display of the power of modern military technology and the ease with which the US has destroyed the Taliban have increased the power of Israeli strategic deterrence.
Motivated by the fundamental need to end the terrorist slaughter and protect the lives of its citizens, the goal of the IDF operation is not the deliberate destruction of Arafat or the framework of the Palestinian Authority. Instead, the objective is to return Arafat to his previous status as the head of a terrorist organization, stripped of the symbols and substance of sovereignty and power that he gained, through subterfuge, under the Oslo Accords.
Arafat's helicopters and his airport are out of action and to move anywhere, he must first receive Israeli permission. In addition, the various security forces operating under his command are being dismantled. These forces provided the infrastructure and support for smuggling explosives and tens of thousands of illegal weapons and support in planning and executing the terror attacks.
In short, the Arafat era appears to be over. He may flee into exile again (although he may have to walk across the border), or he may stay. Either way, the objective is to reduce his influence and military capabilities decisively. Sooner or later, a new Palestinian leadership will arise, which might choose to do business with Israel, not out of love, but out of necessity and concern for the interests and welfare of the Palestinian people. Until then, this war - and the suffering and pain it brings on both sides - will continue.
(The writer is director of the Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation at Bar-Ilan University.) |
